There is a new addition to the alphabetic soup of coalitions in the Indo-Pacific region. After ASEAN, RCEP, TPP, APEC, SCO, EAS and many more, India, Japan, Australia & USA have agreed to come together for a "quadrilateral" meet. In the current scenario, it is inevitably seen as a coalition to counter the resurgent China. The 4 democracies have reiterated their commitment to "rule based order" in the Indo-Pacific region. The importance of the region lies in the fact that more oil passes through it than through Suez canal.
The US president has pushed for this alliance & US sees India as playing a key role in the cause. India has also shown its willingness to lead from front in the recently concluded ASEAN summit. Hon'ble PM made India's stand clear on issues ranging from nuclearisation of Korean Peninsula to South China sea conflict. India has demostrated its capability to counter China in recently concluded Doklam crisis & it has increased India's credibility in the eyes of smaller players in the region who see China as a threat to their territorial sovereignity.
Overall, two visions have emerged for the region. The Chinese are ready to accept the multi lateral global order but they consider Indo-Pacific as their backyard. The recently concluded twice in a decade communist party conference in China has spelt the vision for a China as a key global player. They will be more & more unwilling to share power in the region in coming future. The other vision is that of multilateralism with the preservation of status quo that US & Soviet Russia had designed for the region. Only time will tell which vision will succed but odd seem to be in favour of former at present.
Diplomatically, China is quickly occupying the space receded by US in global forum. It has championed the cause of climate change at UN, free trade at WTO. Indian interests in these areas align more with China then with the developed world.
Militarily , China has developed key defense infrastructure across the region outside its boundaries. The string of pearls in Indian ocean is almost complete with military base at Djibouti, Gwadar port in Arabian sea, Friendship bridge in Male, stakes of Hambantota & other key projects in Kyuapkyu, Chittagong & more recently in Kathmandu. At South China Sea it has developed many military bases in the artificial islands. It is using North Korea as proxy to target Japan & US protectorate islands in Pacific ocean. All this it could achieve without a single bullet being fired.
Economically it is six times as big as India in terms of GDP & holds 10 times more foreign reserves which it is deploying to its strategic advantage. It is a bigger trade partner of US, Japan, India & Australia than these countries are of each other. None of them will want Chinese economy to falter.
Strategically, it has widened its sphere of influence beyond its geographical limits with Belt & Road Inititaive. Many experts see it akin to the Marshall aid that US gave to Europe post world war. With the eastern sector extending upto Eastern Europe, it is fishing in Baltic waters to break European unity. Hence, it is clear that there is no domain of superior power relation that its has left untouched.
On the other hand, the "quad" is a weak coalition with strong centrifugal tendencies at best. All members of quad are member of other groupings with China & they will need to balance their priorities. India is a part of BRICS & SCO whereas Japan, China & Aus will be coming together for TPP. Despite the challenges, the countries of quad will be betting on India to lead.
India on its part has started late but has slowly come to terms with the elephant in its neighbourhood. India's geography with its location at the centre of Indian ocean provides it an upper hand on all cargo movements between Aden & Malacca. It has started mobilising its own infrastructure projects with littoral states. It has welcomed US investment in Nepal & invited Japan to invest in Arunachal Pradesh which China claims as South Tibet. It has also completed Malabar naval exercise with Japan & US despite Chinese reservations.
Yet, in the end all boils to one thing i.e. financial resources. Whats difference between China of today & 20 years ago? The answer is its economy. India has limited financial resources to counter Chinese economic imperialism. US Secretary of state Rex Tillerson has called for alternative to Chinese loan model & financial mobilisation needs to be the highest priority for the quad. The biggest success for quad will be to help smaller states reeling under the burden of Chinese loans. ASEAN has welcomed the quad and they will be looking for the kind of help quad could provide. Despite all this President Trump has given mixed signals during his 12 day long trip to the region. He has asked India & Japan to contribute more citing the trade surplus they enjoy with US.
Thus, there seem to be different motives for each member state to join quad with common adversary in China as the binding glue. While India will look to develop an alternative to China's economic model by mobilising finance, Japan seeks assurance of its security by devloping a collective leadership, U.S looks at it as an effective alternative to power vaccum created by US withdrawl from the region.
The fact that 4 countries have come together to contain China is proof in itself of its growing influence. While the seasonal meetings serve as a great theatre of political aspirations, the benefits of quad will be little without nations willing to make sacrifices on financial side. There is no denying the fact that the region will be governed by "rule based order", the fight is for who gets to make the rules.
Great article as always Mr. Awasthi. Just wanted to understand while India, US, Japan are directly threatened by China in one way or the other, what benefits does Aus get by being in this quad ?
ReplyDeleteAus is tail of USA.
DeleteAnd entirely agree with your point that finance is the key to counter Chinese growing influence. The time is ripe as China's predatory policies are coming out in the open with Srilanka becoming an example having burnt its fingers and the very recent refusal by Pakistan to accept Chinese loans for its dam project in PoK. But as is the case of with multilateral groups bringing all the four countries together for dolling out cheap loans to small countries will be a tough task, and India's consensus building and diplomacy will be tested.
ReplyDeleteAnd lastly, about India's confrontation with China-in my opionion China bases its military diplomacy on intimidation. However many ports it may establish in the sea of pearls it is unlikely to be a first mover ever. China worries a lot about its image and would not want it to be seen as a bigger North Korea. The trade volumes that it enjoys with so many countries are also a bane as when its credibility as a peace loving nation is threatened in the wake of a millitary aggression, not many nations would want to engage with it economically and probably isolate China in the long term with many of them already not seeing it as a tusted ally except of Pakistan and NK. I think the Chinese establishment is alreadys aware of these and is unlikely to ever initiate an act of war if not pushed into a deep corner. So what India needs to do is to just stand its ground and keep improving its influence and millitary, along with acting freely in its own self-interest globally. China will try to intimidate but would hardly ever go beyond. Surrounding with ports is also just a bullying tactic to get its way by playing on others' fears. India should play its own game having had the benefit of understanding the Chinese psyche post-Doklam(or Doka-La as some prefer to say :p).
ReplyDeleteCould not agree more on the view that India should walk its own way. With both nations having nuclear capabilities "string of pearls" etc are more mind games & strategic arm-twisting than real threat on ground. As you pointed out China is conscious of its image and enhancing its soft power will be its biggest challenge going forward. The rhetoric behind emphasizing on quad as alliance of democracies is nothing but calling out China on its undemocratic structure of governance. The only thing that west or India has China does not is soft power. However its important that China gets the taste of its own medicine once in a while else it may soon start claiming more space for itself in Indian ocean or Himalayas. If nothing else the alliance like quad will make it think twice before another Doklam.
Delete